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Tipping point.
Started by Shortpoet-GTD, Mar 26 2012 12:28 PM
14 replies to this topic
#2
Posted 26 March 2012 - 02:02 PM
What I usually believe varies depending on my mood at the time - swinging from optimistic to pessimistic.
Honestly, though, I actually think we are past the tipping point - just barely, but definitely. I think our best efforts now go toward mitigating the worst effects. I think it's too late to save the Maldives and other low lying island nations. Reducing carbon and switching to renewable energy as fast as we can may make the future more bearable and manageable, but we will still have to deal with the consequences of what we've done.
Honestly, though, I actually think we are past the tipping point - just barely, but definitely. I think our best efforts now go toward mitigating the worst effects. I think it's too late to save the Maldives and other low lying island nations. Reducing carbon and switching to renewable energy as fast as we can may make the future more bearable and manageable, but we will still have to deal with the consequences of what we've done.
#3
Posted 26 March 2012 - 08:44 PM
This is a subject that I watch closely and depending on who is doing the research, you will receive different answers. If you follow things like the melting of the Arctic Ocean during summer, the Greenland or Antarctic ice shelf’s things do not look good, one of the biggest problems that is receiving little attention is the increased amount and size of methane escaping from the sea floor.
Five years ago they were reported to be just a few that were a couple of feet in diameter, today however these methane plumes have been increasing in not only frequency but also size, factor in that methane is 23 times more a green house gas than CO2 and it gets down right scary.
I think we are in a crisis that very few truly understand and that the increased temperatures in the US and worldwide over the last 12 years shows that we have past the tipping point, can we still make a differeance, honestly I believe we can but time is running out.
Five years ago they were reported to be just a few that were a couple of feet in diameter, today however these methane plumes have been increasing in not only frequency but also size, factor in that methane is 23 times more a green house gas than CO2 and it gets down right scary.
I think we are in a crisis that very few truly understand and that the increased temperatures in the US and worldwide over the last 12 years shows that we have past the tipping point, can we still make a differeance, honestly I believe we can but time is running out.
#4
Posted 27 March 2012 - 03:30 AM
People across the globe are already paying the price, and not that I care about the insurance companies,
but it's costing them too.
You would think that people would put 2 and 2 together after numerous tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods
wipe out whole towns; but so far, they haven't.
Cattle ranchers had to sell off their stock last year at a loss or moved them north because of the drought.
Usually, when people are hit in the pocket book, they pay attention. Not this time.
But with climate change and their homes or businesses destroyed, they just carry on, rebuild and
ignore
the cause.
We're past the tipping point but the koch brothers and others are yelling "hoax" loudly enough
to drown out the facts.
But I also think that Mother Nature will kick our butts badly enough that it will reduce the population,
and therefore, the consumption and the emissions.
What will be left is anyone's guess.
but it's costing them too.
You would think that people would put 2 and 2 together after numerous tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods
wipe out whole towns; but so far, they haven't.
Cattle ranchers had to sell off their stock last year at a loss or moved them north because of the drought.
Usually, when people are hit in the pocket book, they pay attention. Not this time.
But with climate change and their homes or businesses destroyed, they just carry on, rebuild and
ignore
the cause.
We're past the tipping point but the koch brothers and others are yelling "hoax" loudly enough
to drown out the facts.
But I also think that Mother Nature will kick our butts badly enough that it will reduce the population,
and therefore, the consumption and the emissions.
What will be left is anyone's guess.
#5
Posted 27 March 2012 - 09:36 AM
Shortpoet-GTD, on 26 March 2012 - 12:28 PM, said:
In your opinion, are we past it or do we still have time?
I don't know.
I'd like to think there's still time, but I don't know.
I'm pretty sure there's physically still time to cut down enough on human greenhouse gas emissions enough to head off really severe climate change effects but I have real doubts about whether there's enough time when political and economic delays are included.
It looks like people are thinking in terms of a bunch of smaller tipping points instead of one big one. Could maybe come to some stable climate state warmer than now but not run all the way to something like what it was like in the Eocene( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene ) Maybe come to a warmer stable state if we cut way down on fossil fuel CO2 emissions.
Long but interesting report that includes multiple tipping points here: http://scotland.wwf....fm?unewsid=3478 , click on the part near the bottom of the page "read the full report....Insurance Sector"
#6
Posted 27 March 2012 - 11:02 AM
Well, we have been a nomadic race from the start-moving, conquering, moving again.
We will migrate because of this. Problem being, so damn many of us now, with dwindling resources- number one
being water.
If they can start cranking out desalinization plants like candy, it might be "doable"-surviving the droughts for instance.
We'll either not have enough in places-droughts-or too much - melting glaciers.
I appreciate your reply and links.
We will migrate because of this. Problem being, so damn many of us now, with dwindling resources- number one
being water.
If they can start cranking out desalinization plants like candy, it might be "doable"-surviving the droughts for instance.
We'll either not have enough in places-droughts-or too much - melting glaciers.
I appreciate your reply and links.
#7
Posted 27 March 2012 - 12:05 PM
Being a scientist and an optimist I think we'll do fine.as will most of the developed world. We have the technology and wealth to overcome considerable change. I think Africa is screwed though.
At any rate it is out of our control, China, India, and the rest of the developing world will control our fate and China is building coal fired plants like there is literally no tomorrow.
When China and India blew off Obama at the climate talks, that was my version of a tipping point. Since they weren't even willing to discuss carbon limits you know where they are going. Since we can't even pay for our own green energy souces, there is no way we can fund theirs. My take is it will continue to get worse until the third world figures out that it is they that are suffering the most and nobody is going to come to their rescue.
My hope is that by using cheap dirty energy they can become affluent enough to be able to afford thier own solutions.
From what I've read carbon output is 20% industrial, 40% housing, and 40% transportation so if we want to do something meaningful, it is we as individuals that have to do it, We can either put solar on our own homes or we can pay a utility to pave the desert over will silicon. Either way we pay. The question is who gets the benefit? That's why I installed my own!
Solar is so cheap now. If you install it yourself you can do it for $1.25/watt with federal incentives. State incentives make it even cheaper. What's that old phrase "Think globally, act locally"? OK, I'm off my soap box now!
At any rate it is out of our control, China, India, and the rest of the developing world will control our fate and China is building coal fired plants like there is literally no tomorrow.
When China and India blew off Obama at the climate talks, that was my version of a tipping point. Since they weren't even willing to discuss carbon limits you know where they are going. Since we can't even pay for our own green energy souces, there is no way we can fund theirs. My take is it will continue to get worse until the third world figures out that it is they that are suffering the most and nobody is going to come to their rescue.
My hope is that by using cheap dirty energy they can become affluent enough to be able to afford thier own solutions.
From what I've read carbon output is 20% industrial, 40% housing, and 40% transportation so if we want to do something meaningful, it is we as individuals that have to do it, We can either put solar on our own homes or we can pay a utility to pave the desert over will silicon. Either way we pay. The question is who gets the benefit? That's why I installed my own!
Solar is so cheap now. If you install it yourself you can do it for $1.25/watt with federal incentives. State incentives make it even cheaper. What's that old phrase "Think globally, act locally"? OK, I'm off my soap box now!
#8
Posted 27 March 2012 - 01:06 PM
Someone said recently, we have five years, but I think that is twenty years too late. This winter was significantly warmer than most, with little to no snow fall in this area. I await the summer and I am just a little afraid, as you are able to get warmer with added clothing and blankets. But when temperatures rise, the body can only take so much and can only sweat so much. Especially older people, who would have a very hard time. I hope to goodness my worst fears do not happen, but I am seriously worried. People are so blind, only because they don't want to see. Many people could die in a short period of time, with a heavy price being paid by the country, for the folly. I also do not think there is anything we can do at this point, as someone else mentioned, we will have to deal with the situation. I do think the tipping point has come and gone. Bless us all. Cheers.
#10
Posted 29 March 2012 - 05:09 AM
"Purdue University climatologist Matthew Huber gets plenty of death threats, but that hasn’t stopped him from
exploring the outer limits of just how much global warming human beings can tolerate.
Whatever our recent Great American Heat Wave may or may not portend, most credible climate scientists agree
that human-caused global warming is real — oh yes they do! [PDF] — and most of the research out there,
Huber says, predicts dire consequences for people (and other mammals) if average global temperatures
rise by 10.8 degrees F or more.
That could well happen this century:
By 2100, Huber points out, the mid-range estimates predict a rise of 5.4 degrees F to 7.2 degrees F in average global temperatures based on current economic activities,
but those studies ignore accelerating factors like the release of vast quantities of methane
— a potent greenhouse gas — now trapped beneath permafrost and sea ice that’s becoming less and less permanent.
Other models foresee rises in the 18 degrees F range this century; at the outer fringe, predictions range as high as 36 degrees F.
Truth is, we simply don’t know exactly when we’ll reach these milestones or what they will cost us.
And thanks to the uncertainty, it’s been hard to get nations to agree on limits.
In any case, the pair crunched the numbers and published the results in a May 2010 paper [PDF] in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."
(This a long article but worth the read.)
http://grist.org/cli...paign=gristacct
exploring the outer limits of just how much global warming human beings can tolerate.
Whatever our recent Great American Heat Wave may or may not portend, most credible climate scientists agree
that human-caused global warming is real — oh yes they do! [PDF] — and most of the research out there,
Huber says, predicts dire consequences for people (and other mammals) if average global temperatures
rise by 10.8 degrees F or more.
That could well happen this century:
By 2100, Huber points out, the mid-range estimates predict a rise of 5.4 degrees F to 7.2 degrees F in average global temperatures based on current economic activities,
but those studies ignore accelerating factors like the release of vast quantities of methane
— a potent greenhouse gas — now trapped beneath permafrost and sea ice that’s becoming less and less permanent.
Other models foresee rises in the 18 degrees F range this century; at the outer fringe, predictions range as high as 36 degrees F.
Truth is, we simply don’t know exactly when we’ll reach these milestones or what they will cost us.
And thanks to the uncertainty, it’s been hard to get nations to agree on limits.
In any case, the pair crunched the numbers and published the results in a May 2010 paper [PDF] in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."
(This a long article but worth the read.)
http://grist.org/cli...paign=gristacct
#11
Posted 30 March 2012 - 12:20 PM
I wonder about the birds and the wildlife. Are they going to be barometers, like the canarys in the coalmines? I know there have been birds dying emass recently, but that has been blamed on things other than rising temperatires. The oxygen in the water will be affected, so the fish will probably die off all over. Oh happy day. Cheers.
#12
Posted 30 March 2012 - 02:04 PM
artistry, on 30 March 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:
Oh happy day. Cheers.
It's becoming difficult to stay optimistic.
So, as small as they are, I try to focus on the good things I see-like a butterfly. Instead of crying inside at the
fact at seeing just one, I focus on the fact that there is at least one.
It probably sounds silly, but with so many eco-systems being destroyed as we speak, I have to. Either
that or lose my mind completely.
I'm not suicidal, so I don't have that option.
And yesterday was extremely hard, realizing that my 3 biggest elm trees are dead.
So today, I bought flowers to plant to bring in some beneficial insects, hopefully. (And I did see 6-7 hummingbird
moths last night too. Didn't make up for the loss of my trees, but it helped a bit.)
#14
Posted 01 April 2012 - 03:30 AM
artistry, on 31 March 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:
What happened to your elm trees, for gosh sakes? I try to think of other things, until my mind goes back to morbid thoughts. We can only hope for the best. Cheers.
30% of my trees.
I can't water like I would like to for 1-high water bills and 2-knowing our lake level is at the lowest since
they opened it (guilt). We didn't have enough water for me to utilize my rainwater catch-so a double whammy.
Even many of my smaller trees are dead.
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