10 replies to this topic

[eds]

The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.
. . . It ended because a disruptive technology ushered in the Bronze Age.

The era of centralized, command-and-control, extraction-resource-based energy sources
. . . . . . (oil, gas, coal and nuclear)
. . . . . . will not end because we run out of petroleum, natural gas, coal, or uranium.
. . . It will end because these energy sources, the business models they employ, and
. . . . . . the products that sustain them,
. . . . . . will be disrupted by superior technologies, product architectures, and business models.

The same Silicon Valley technology-based disruption reminiscent of how the
. . . . . . cell phone,
. . . . . . Internet, and
. . . . . . personal computer,
. . . swept away industries such as
. . . . . . landline telephony,
. . . . . . publishing, and
. . . . . . mainframe computers.

Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation:
. . . How Silicon Valley Will Make
. . . . . . Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and
. . . . . . Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030
by Tony Seba (Author)

[Dustoffer]

I remember a book about us heading back to the stone age with Eco-collapse from overpopulation and environmental ruin and depletion.  Others put it as "Medieval".  Then you hear about rocks, and the stone age not ending because of lack of rocks but increased technology.  As if there is a technical fix that will work in time to prevent apocalypse.
We wish for something that will lower emissions enough in time, and time is what we need but DON'T have, anymore.  We wish for new sources of food, and get plastics.  I wish for that magic 90% total emissions reduction from 2000 levels by the end of 2023.
Fossil fuels will be over, but it will be too late by 2030, when some think the crash will occur.
The thing is, can we reasonably think that technology will allow the needed reductions in time?  Less than 8 1/2 years.  Hmmm....
Will everyone get off their dead asses long enough to save our biosphere?  Will all the people have emissions free power and transport by then, and provided and paid for by others???
Well, to me, it is worth "the old college try".  Let me see, what was so different 9 years ago?  For us, it was all solar, hybrid, gardens,composters, re-use, recycle, reduce family size and consumption, and we did it in just a few years last century.
I really wish everyone could do it, but no one around here has followed our leads from last century, and people in other countries have also been so slow.  Much too slow.
Come on, people, let's get moving.  It is a race we must win at all costs............

[still learning]

eds, on 18 July 2014 - 09:31 AM, said:

. . . swept away industries such as
. . . . . . landline telephony,
. . . . . . publishing, and
. . . . . . mainframe computers.

Swept away?        I still have a landline phone.  Comes in from the box down the street on the same copper wire pair that brings me 1.5 mb internet and TV.  It's still amazing to me that so much stuff can come across on a single wire pair.  That fiber optic connected "smart" box down the street is very different though than the simple telco connection box that used top be there.  Landline phone companies have changed, merged, morphed,diminished maybe, but not disappeared, not "swept away."    Publishing?  I still receive a hardcopy magazine in themail, still buy a book once in awhile.  Not as many as before though.  Again, diminished, but not "swept away."  Mainframe computers?  Still around.  See http://www-03.ibm.co...html?LNK=browse  Now sometimes called servers.  Not in the news, not advertised to "consumers," but still there.  Diminished, maybe, out of the public eye, sure, but not "swept away."

[douken]

Dear Readers,
The Obama Administration has recently permitted oil and gas exploration off shore the east coast of the U. S. -- these exploration companies will be using sonic cannons to find deposits. The use of these cannons is a danger to all marine life. Please, please sign the White House Petition:


​"​BAN OIL & GAS EXPLORATION OFF SHORE THE EAST COAST OF THE U. S. WITH USE OF SONIC CANNONS, A DANGER TO ALL MARINE LIFE!
​"​

at wh  . gov  /Img62

Thank you!

[Besoeker]

still learning, on 18 July 2014 - 10:54 AM, said:

Swept away?    I still have a landline phone.  Comes in from the box down the street on the same copper wire pair that brings me 1.5 mb internet and TV.  It's still amazing to me that so much stuff can come across on a single wire pair.  That fiber optic connected "smart" box down the street is very different though than the simple telco connection box that used top be there.  Landline phone companies have changed, merged, morphed,diminished maybe, but not disappeared, not "swept away." Publishing?  I still receive a hardcopy magazine in themail, still buy a book once in awhile.  Not as many as before though.  Again, diminished, but not "swept away."  Mainframe computers?  Still around.  See http://www-03.ibm.co...html?LNK=browse  Now sometimes called servers.  Not in the news, not advertised to "consumers," but still there.  Diminished, maybe, out of the public eye, sure, but not "swept away."

I'm with you on pretty much all of that.
I think there is sometimes the rose-tinted glasses take on how progress is being made.
And, for sure, it is being made.Just sometimes not at the rate that it is made out to be being made.

Yes, I also have a land line for our telephone. We get great rates from UK to USA which is good for us - Mrs B is from USA and we like in UK. The same company provides our broadband and television.

But back to fossils.
In terms of world generating capacity....
Currently about 67%  fossil, 7% nuclear, and 19% hydro.
The other 7% is renewables excluding hydro.

But this is installed capacity. The capacity factor for wind turbines is generally about 30% or less.
For solar PV the theoretical best* with 12 hour overhead sunshine (within the tropics) is 32% ignoring conversion losses. But typically no more than about 20%. So the 7% capacity needs to be seen in that light - no pun intended.

A link for those who like links:

http://www.eia.gov/t....cfm?id=527&t=1

Quote

EIA estimates that about 11% of world marketed energy consumption is from renewable energy sources (hydropower,biomass, biofuels, wind, geothermal, and solar), with a projection for 15% by 2040

But note that the 11% includes hydro and given installed capacity differences, other renewables must be a small proportion of that 11%.
We have a long way to go.

*Trig/calculus and 1/(PI)

[eds]

The main problem with Fossil Fuels is
. . . No one has figured out,
. . . how to put them back into the ground.

Attached Files

•  FossilFuels.jpg   16.71K   0 downloads

[Dustoffer]

Waste from attempting to get all the natural gas (leaky methane) IS GEOLOGIC!
University of Colorado Boulder Scientists Link 10,800-Foot-Deep Fracking Wastewater Well to More Than 200 Earthquakes

Brandon Baker | July 25, 2014 12:28 pm | Comments

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13 895
"When the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission ordered NGL Water Solutions to stop fracking wastewater injection operations a month ago, a team of University of Colorado Boulder researchers began conducting its own investigation.
NGL, formerly known as High Sierra Water Services, was given permission to resume its activities at a 10,800-foot-deep well a few weeks later, but the CU findings suggest that shouldn’t have happened. Anne Sheehan and her team found that the well is linked to more than 200 earthquakes, the geophysics professor in the CU Department of Geological Sciences told Boulder County Business Report."
http://ecowatch.com/...2c534f-85901709
The State of Colorado allowed a company to resume wastewater injection operations at a well researchers believe is linked to more than 200 earthquakes. Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
Well, if we can't beat insanity, who can?

[Dustoffer]

TALK ABOUT GALL!!!
Oil refinery threatened by sea-level rise, asks government to fix problem

By Ben Adler   Shutterstock
"I pointed out last week that the major oil companies are actually much more willing than Republican politicians to admit the reality of climate change. I offered a few explanations as to why, but left out an important one: If you’re in business, you simply cannot afford to ignore the effects of climate change. The oil industry in particular builds expensive infrastructure, and its scientists and engineers use the best available science to design, situate, and manage that infrastructure. After all, you cannot make smart plans to exploit newly accessible Arctic oil if you don’t admit that the polar ice cap is melting."
http://grist.org/cli..._campaign=daily

They CAUSE the ocean level rise and Arctic Melting they want to take advantage of without regard to anything but financial gain.
Plus have their hand out to government!
They can go eat used toilet paper as far as I'm concerned!

[Dustoffer]

It would be great if the demand for fossil fuels went to zero in 8 years.  The "Jet Age" MUST END!
Air traffic growth set to outpace carbon reduction efforts

http://phys.org/news...ace-carbon.html

Then you have the overly conservative UN;
4 Pathways to Our Climate Future—Which Will We Choose?

Nicole D'Alessandro | August 6, 2014 10:59 am | Comments

99 110
14 497
"According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report, we are approaching dangerous territory because of climate change. All areas of the world have already experienced effects of global temperatures rising, from extreme weather events to record droughts.
For the first time in human history, concentrations of carbon dioxide, a global warming pollutant, have hit 400 parts per million in Earth’s atmosphere. Without taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can expect to experience a number of escalating consequences, from sea level rise to ecosystem degradation, according to experts.
Yet there is still time to reverse course and stave off such catastrophic outcomes. IPCC  finds it physically and technically feasible to stay within the world’s “carbon budget” and offers useful tips for climate action.
What would the future look like if we took drastic action to cut emissions—or no action at all?"
http://ecowatch.com/...fdd548-85901709
It would be good if they just told it like it is, instead of being PC for both people and corporations.  We have, at most, 8 years 4 moths left to lower emissions at least 90%, NOT 80% by 2050!!!!!!
They do not even address the biological impossibility of NOT having the population crash!  The do not mention the Arctic Methane Emergency, as if it isn't there growing and blowing holes out of the ground.
Then there are those who think it is passed, or that in the time left, people will not reduce emissions enough.
The worst case is not playing out.  It is a worse than worst case that has been playing out in observations.

[eds]

How long will it take to get rid of the Hummer?

Attached Files

•  Hummer.jpg   11.22K   1 downloads

[Dustoffer]

I wrote Gore in 1995 to stop the manufacture and use of V8 or equivalent and larger engines.  Hummers never should have even been manufactured for civilians. IMHO