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[E3 wise]

Literally 2012 has been the year of good news/ bad news when it comes to solar energy integration and manufacturing. While overall production of solar energy has grown this year, the amount is slated to be less than what was added in 2011.  Much of the growth has been brought about by the continued decrease in cost of solar panels with prices hovering at an average of around $ 0.65 per watt across the broad spectrum of manufactures; this is a reduction of around 30% over 2011prices.

Late 3rd quarter projections estimate that 20 GW of PV capacities will be installed this year by half a dozen nations on three continents. While the industry won’t come close to matching the capacity installed in 2011, deployments won’t be nearly as low as some experts had predicted.  So here is the run down starting with the United States.

The United States, which is predicted to have installed about 3 GW in 2012, partly fueled by another dash for cash – this one driven by the expiration of the 30% U.S. Treasury grant program at the end of 2011 which was extended into 2013 but is still set to expire just like the production tax credit for wind did this year. Like the PTC for Wind, solar incentives continue to receive support from both sides of the isle in Congress, but with the continued grid lock nothing has come to pass so far.  Luckily state incentives continue strong with little sign of phase out.

Germany has installed 6.8 GW of solar as of October and was well on pace to reach a projected 8 GW of instillation by year-end.  Yet 2013 is set to see some game changing instillations worldwide that could replace Germany as the number one installer of solar.

China is set to install about 4 GW of Photovoltaic this year, and has set a national solar power capacity target of 21 GW by 2015 (although word in the industry is that the target soon could be boosted as high as 40 GW).   This would be great news for solar manufactures worldwide because it would reduce the surplus of lower cost panels on the market, and due to the price supports and incentives available from the Chinese government, rebalance the world PV market to a more level playing field to cope with the cheep production costs of Chinese manufactures due to the elevated Chinese price supports.

India, which has achieved momentum from its Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) – with a goal to install 20 GW of solar power by 2022 – and has hit its stride, installing slightly over 1 GW in 2012, but like the United States faces the possible reduction of incentives in 2013.  India poses a unique situation in that its grid system is divided between 12 provinces nationally, with the overall grid being very antiquated and unstable as demonstrated by the power outages nationwide that occurred all over the country in 2012.  Yet as India continues to grow in manufacturing capabilities, manufactures are calling for a national program to spur alternative energy production, likewise as air quality standards have decreased, the country as seemed to reach a tipping point in calling for a reduction in coal fired power plant instillations, to be replaced by alternatives sources.  Solar and secondly wind energy instillation are poised to take up the slack due to India’s strong solar possibilities given its location and production possibilities.

Italy, which is expected to end 2012 with installations in the 3.5 GW range, after experiencing a "mini rush" before Conto Energia V became effective, the new legislation mandates that only 245 million would be available in incentives for photovoltaic in 2013. This is a far cry from last year’s massive developments in the Italian solar sector which completely dwarfed other regional markets. In fact, the country accounted for more than 82% of the total European market in 2011.

Japan, which arguably has had the best outlook worldwide as of July, with PV systems below 10 kW receiving ¥42/kWh (US$0.53 or €0.40) and systems above 10 kW receiving ¥40 (~$0.51 or €0.39) – and was estimated to hit 0.9 GW of utility-scale solar projects this year.

At the utility scale, solar is increasingly being perceived as the fastest way to add more capacity to the grid – a key advantage over coal, nuclear energy and natural gas. Based on the latest figures utility-scale (10 MWs or more) PV installations have reached 8.5 GW this year, more than doubling the 2.3 GW deployed in 2011.

In a good news/bad news scenario at the consumer level, experts soon expect to see sales uptick directly linked to the real and disturbing effects of global warming. Frequent battering by superstorms, followed by prolonged power outages, has convinced individuals and groups of homeowners who might otherwise have remained on the fence to invest in energy independence.

In 2013, consumers will be looking for backup in the form of low-cost, reliable rooftop systems; combined with power storage and grid integration. Other major consumer-level trends will include community solar, innovative third-party solar leasing arrangements, and the development of plug-and-play packages.

It is important to understand that in 2013 falling storage and integration costs should follow the decrease in panel costs.  Today prices for batteries, inverters, and charge controllers continue to remain higher, but as instillation costs have decreased for PV panels, the need for overall system components has caused a significant uptick in production rates that should translate to lower costs for overall system components to consumers.

Industry insiders are projecting a possible 15% to 20% reduction in these component costs especially for higher quality AGM and Gel Cell back up batteries.  However don’t look for lithium Ion batteries to decrease in cost much in 2013.  These types of batteries will continue to remain high in cost due to their limited production rates by manufactures.

Finally in the good news category the widespread increase in solar instillation in China and India will go a long way in helping to reduce pollution and CO2 emissions both in those two countries and worldwide by reducing the projected increased instillation of coal fired power plants in the two countries.  That folks is good news for the whole planet.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Found this article too-better efficiency. (World record set at 44%)

http://www.treehugge...cells-nrel.html

[Shortpoet-GTD]

"The third quarter 2012 was the third largest on record for the U.S. solar industry and raised the total installed
capacity through the first three quarters of the year to 1,992 megawatts (MW)-
already surpassing 2011’s annual total of 1,885 MW.
There were 684 MW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity installed in Q3 2012, representing a 44 percent increase
in deployment over the third quarter of 2011.
SEIA forecasts that close to 1,300 MW of PV capacity will be installed in the fourth quarter of 2012 alone,
bringing the total for the year to 3,200 MW."
http://www.seia.org/...-market-insight

http://www.seia.org/...-solar-database

[Romith]

Found this article very useful. this is what I was looking for.

From:- smartsearch.ie