19 replies to this topic

[still learning]

Maybe this quote has come up on this forum before, but it's interesting anyway...

"if climate were a bank it would have been saved by now"

http://davidappell.b...-were-bank.html

One of the things said at the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference by Hugo Chavez.  I'm not a fan of Chavez, but still.....

[mariaandrea]

It's a good quote.

It comes down to dollars. Always. The powers that be want to grow, preserve, protect and defend almighty capital, no matter the real cost. In some ways nothing has really changed since the Dark Ages. We have technology but think the same way. People up at the top are grasping as tightly as possible to economic feudalism.

So, we're here to tell them money isn't the only thing that matters. I mean, how can you enjoy your money on a planet that falls apart, anyway?

[Isabellas2007]

This is very true. The banks or auto industry shows signs of trouble and the government bails them out quickly. However, the planet, which we rely on more then them, does not get any type of help or even funding for the proper power sources.

[Phil]

When food, shelter, and clothing take money, money IS the only thing that matters!   

The government gives you 30% for buying solar panels and $7500 for buying an EV, they've done their part.  The rest is up to you.  They aren't going to give you these things, if they did you would still pay via taxes.  80% of our carbon footprint is from individuals, 40% housing, 40% transportation.  That means it is up to we as individuals to make it happen.

There are also huge incentives for utility owned green power, again the government has done it's part.  Saying they aren't funding them is not exactly accurate.

[still learning]

Phil, on 06 June 2012 - 01:38 PM, said:

That means it is up to we as individuals to make it happen.

Individuals won't make it happen.  Not voluntarily, not in sufficient numbers.  In my opinion.

I see the greenhouse gas problem something like the smog problem, magnified.
Here in California there was a recognzed ismog problem in the Los Angeles area in the earky 1950's.  If it had been allowed to get bad enough then people would've quit moving to southern California from other states.  Would have been bad for business, especially the real estate business.  Voluntary industrial smog abatement?  Lip service only from some businesses.  Automotive smog emissions control?  Not even lip service.
Took required reductions in smog emissions to do the job.
Still got some smog, but at least it's livable.  Locally, San Francisco area, better than it used to be, even with more people.

I don't see enough international CO2 reduction happening internationally just by voluntary reductions.  One of the complications is that it's not just CO2 from electricity production that is the problem, but all the other CO2 too.  Here in the US transportation and building heating produce similar amounts of CO2.  According to what I've read, we (the industrialized world and China and India and...) we'll need to get way under our present level of fossil fuel use to stabilize climate.
I think it'll take required reductions in CO2 emissions to do the job.

[Phil]

Mandate all single story buildings are energy neutral, that ought to do it!    Then move on to two story, etc.  Expect a ton of push back though, if it materially raises energy costs.

My point was government isn't going to solve the problem, people are.  If they are forced to, so be it.  But government is not going to pay for it, they are not going to install it, you will do both.

More than one economist has said we are 6-8 years from being Greece if we don't make radical changes in spending.  That means a smaller government largess so funding will not go up, it will likely go down.  It won't matter who is elected either, the poo is hitting the fan in a very bipartisan way.

That's why I think Obama's tariff on China panels is really dumb, we will be stretched to the limit on expendatures for everything, including green technonogy.  Raising prices now, when the well is running dry is counterproductive.  It's also why I advocate a nationwide DIY effort where components could be bought wholesale and installed by the homeowner with expert volunteer help, (a solar habitat for humanity if you will).  That makes solar competitive even with coal, it is already cheaper than nuclear and wind.

If utilities own green energy it will drive electric rates through the roof, punishing the poorest the most.  If you make it cheap enough, even the poor could use them by taking advantage of loans set up to be in line with their utility bill.  But the price has to be right, under $1/watt.  It is 99 cents and below now, which is why I advocate buying now.

You are right, carbon is about 40% housing, 40% personal transportation, 20% industrial.  That means Solar, wind, hydro as first choices, nat gas as second.  I don't like nukes so I'm leaving them out.    It also means BEV's and eventually hydrogen FCV's.

But we cannot break the bank getting there, they HAVE to be competitive.  And if it is competitive people will volunrarily do it.  People hate mandates, they love incentives.  Show them how to save money and the'll do it.

Being a realist, here's what I think will happen:

• Solar panel costs will continue to decline despite Obama's tariff, (it's already happening).
  
• The self install movement will continue to expand, (internet vendors are not only surviving, they are thriving!).
  
• If a miracle occurs and we actually generate an energy policy the snowball effect can start day one from it's announcement, otherwise it wil be another five years.
  
• BEV's will reach price/performance parity in 5-10 years.
  
• FCV's will reach price/performance parity in 10-15 years.
  
• Green incentives will expire 2016 due to ongoing debt/deficit problems, (sooner or later gen x/y/z/etc will realize they're footing the bill for all our borrowing and they will revolt).

The question is though, will government force this?  My guess is not and if I'm right it means you will be doing it or it won't get done.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

"If climate were a bank.......

I look at it this way.
A woman with 10 kids being noisy, running around causing distractions doesn't matter if one of her kids
is really sick. She focuses on that one kid and ignores the rest for a time.

Our economy is that sick kid, and with all the in-fighting that is going on now between dems/repubs-
the climate, like those other kids in the scenario, are being ignored.

[Phil]

All the more reason I say it's up to us as individuals.

Government was set up to be this "dysfunctional".  House/senate, executive/legislative/judicial, etc.  While the fighting may seem shrill, I doubt it's been that much better in decades past, and not only in our country to boot.  I wonder if our founding fathers did this to assure we would remain self sufficient to the largest extent possible rather than depending on government to solve everything.

Again, in this case the only thing they can do is hold a gun to your head and force you to buy solar panels and electric cars.  If they subsidize it, you still pay through taxes, if the utility goes solar you still pay for it with higher rates, etc.  That 30% credit is taxpayer funded, that's the only source governmnent has for money, we the people.  Even corporate taxes are paid by us, their customers.

[FamilyTreeClimber]

I agree with Shortpoet.  Our government has major issues it should be tackling.  Instead the Senate has broken the filibuster record every year that Obama has been President.  The House spends numerous hours on anti-abortion measures and repealing the Affordable Health Care Act.

We have too many collective issues and goals to pretend that we don't need government.  I would rather see my tax dollars go to subsidize things that help the people then see it line the pockets of banking CEOs.  We have accomplished many things as a nation in far worse times.  The 1930s saw the construction of some our greatest infrastructure projects like the Golden Gate Bridge.  The REA brought electricity to corners of the country that hadn't yet seen this marvel.  I do not always believe government is the problem.  It can be a positive force when it wants to be.

Let's face it.  Once they figure out how to make mu

[Phil]

And for every person like you there is someone on the other side arguing democrats should be filibustered because they are destroying the country and Obamacare should be repealed.  So what is gained?  They think they are just as right as you are.

Nobody, except my more radical libertarian brothers, is arguing we don't need government, conservatives have never argued that.  Government has historically been 18% of GDP, it's now 25% and is sucking the economy dry.  All those projects happened when we weren't $16 trillion in debt, if we were zero in debt you wouldn't get such push back.

Was your comment going to be "Once they figure out how to make money off of green energy it will succeed?  Well Duh!   People are by nature free market capitalists, that's why it is so successful.

Free market capitalism is a buyer and a seller agreeing on a price, nothing more, nothing less.  Ebay, garage sales, lemonade stands, bake sales, flee markets, farmers markets are all examples.  The role of government is to keep it all above board, level the playing field, then get out of the way.  It's when government gets in the way that things get dicey.  Crony capitalism is not free market capitalism, too big to fail is not free market capitalism, capitalizing gaines while socializing losses is not free market capitalism.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Phil, on 13 June 2012 - 12:59 PM, said:

While the fighting may seem shrill, I doubt it's been that much better in decades past,

On this one issue, I disagree.
I wasn't there, but from what I've read and my folks told me, when the government asked everyone in the
country to pitch in and help with "the war effort" during WWII, they did. Everyone reduced consumption,
recycling was at an all time high, among other things.
If the will is there, it could be done.

[artistry]

The woman with the 10 kids is good Shortpoet. The economy and jobs is the focus. In my opinion, bottom line, people will have to want to make a change. If and when they do, perhaps, perhaps  we will see movement. Of course time is a great factor, it will not wait.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

artistry, on 13 June 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:

The woman with the 10 kids is good Shortpoet. The economy and jobs is the focus. In my opinion, bottom line, people will have to want to make a change. If and when they do, perhaps, perhaps  we will see movement. Of course time is a great factor, it will not wait.

Thanks.
And it could so easily, imo, become a two-fer. Promoting solar, wind, geothermal brings jobs. How many electricians
and linemen would it employ to install the new smart grid?
How many construction workers would be working if they put in a high speed rail-coast to coast,
not to mention the emissions gone from individual cars.
The gop is killing this country, and probably the planet.
I'm sick of their YOYO=you're on your own mentality.

[still learning]

Shortpoet-GTD, on 13 June 2012 - 04:19 PM, said:

On this one issue, I disagree.
....when the government asked everyone in the
country to pitch in and help with "the war effort" during WWII, they did. Everyone reduced consumption,
recycling was at an all time high, among other things.
If the will is there, it could be done.

The government didn't just ask.

At the consumer level there was mandatory rationing of many items, gasoline, tires, sugar, and quite a few other (not all) food items.  Many consumer products like new automobiles and new refrigerators simply weren't available to the ordinary person.
See  http://www.ameshisto...s/rationing.htm
    At the manufacturing level, most raw materials were allocated at the national level and many manufacturers had to convert to war production in order to stay in business.  These things were no more voluntary than selective service (the draft) was.
See http://en.wikipedia....roduction_Board

See also http://en.wikipedia....ng_World_War_II

[still learning]

Shortpoet-GTD, on 13 June 2012 - 04:19 PM, said:

On this one issue, I disagree.
....when the government asked everyone in the
country to pitch in and help with "the war effort" during WWII, they did. Everyone reduced consumption,
recycling was at an all time high, among other things.
If the will is there, it could be done.

The government didn't just ask.

At the consumer level there was mandatory rationing of many items, gasoline, tires, sugar, and quite a few other (not all) food items.  Many consumer products like new automobiles and new refrigerators simply weren't available to the ordinary person.
See  http://www.ameshisto...s/rationing.htm
    At the manufacturing level, most raw materials were allocated at the national level and many manufacturers had to convert to war production in order to stay in business.  These things were no more voluntary than selective service (the draft) was.
See http://en.wikipedia....roduction_Board

See also http://en.wikipedia....ng_World_War_II

[artistry]

You will love this...Reportedly, one of Mitt Romney's advisers called Chancellor Merkel, telling her to continue pushing their austerity program which is killing Europe, just so the negative spill over will hit the US. They should all come to heaven. They are evil.

[Phil]

Shortpoet, yes we can come together when we have a common goal but right now green energy is not a common goal.  As I once mentioned I actually get more enthusiasm from my conservative friends than my liberal friends on solar and EV's.  Everybody thinks it would be great but nobody wants to spend the money.  Conservatives say "when it's economically viable while liberals say "when government does something".

You say the GOP is killing this country, as a fiscal conservative I say the DNC is killing this country.  They are digging a hole so deep we'll never be able to crawl out.  So what is gained?  My vote cancels yours.

If I didn't say it before I'll say it now, do you want to be right or do you want to make progress?  Congress is not the problem, we are.  If we are divided into armed camps is it any wonder that congress does the same?  We are not a reflection of them, they are a reflection of us.  Being libertarian I have a foot in both camps.    Both think they are right, both think the other is crazy.  So what is gained?  Either both sides finds common ground or both sides point fingers, name call, and dig in their heals.  How much gets accomplished with the latter?  Nothing.

"How many electricians and linemen would it employ to install the new smart grid?"  Likely zero, all utilities have regular staff whose job it is to repair and upgrade.  Smart grid actually destroys jobs, no more meter readers.  My utility has been completely converted for years.  I suspect most others have as well, not because it's green but because it allows them to cut staff and save money.   Utilities are "evil" corporations too!

High speed trains are a falacy, there just isn't enough traffic to support the cost.  How many cars would it eliminate? Zero, if people want to go coast to coast they can just as easily fly.  All you will do is bury the US in even more debt.

Like it or not you ARE on your own one way or the other.  Everything you get from government you pay for in taxes.  Even if they borrow it from China it's still your money.  They just took out a loan in your name and handed you the bill to pay off.  There is no such thing as government money, it is all taxpayer money.

Stimulus is never a solution, it is a stopgap.  That's why it never works, as soon as it wears off you need another one.   That's beacuse it doesn't address the underlying problem, spending more than you have.  If stimulus worked we wouldn't need QE1, if QE1 worked we wouldn't need QE2, if QE2 worked we wouldn't be hearing Bernake saying QE3 is ready to go.

Austerity is the only solution because it DOES address the underlying problem.  Is it painful?  Of course!  When you have cancer do you want an aspirin to feel better or chemo to be better?  Austerity is inevitable, either you do it now and feel the equivalent of a bee sting, or we turn into Greece and feel the equivelent of a debilitating throbbing migrain.  It isn't even a decade away at the rate we are going.  Doing nothing IS choosing the Greece outcome and solution.

Merkle is not destroying Greece, Spain, etc.  They destroyed themselves.  Merkle is not enabling them to continue to destroy themselves and take her down with them.

So there you have it, my side of the argument.  We can go back and forth and play the blame game and what gets accomplished?  Nothing.  Government will not stop being armed camps as long as we are armed camps.  Saying the GOP is evil or is destroying the country solves no more than saying the DNC is destroying the country.  In point of fact they both have evils to answer for.

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Phil-as cynical as it is, I think George Carlin got it right on politics/corporations.
(warning-graphic language)

[Phil]

Pretty funny!    All the more reason we need to stop playing the game and find common ground!

Seriously, the problem I have with the video is, as a white collar corporate guy I have been treated very well.  I have made a lot of money despite never making it past first line manager.  I was able to retire at 55.  The stock market has been good to me.  It was Bush's economy that allowed this outcome!  So when I hear Bush is evil I go WHAT?  When I hear republcans are evil I go WHAT?  It is the very success that Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 2 gave me through capitalism that allowed me to be able to afford my 10KW solar.  It's Google's obscene profits that enable it to invest in green energy big time!  So when I hear capitalism is evil I go WHAT?

Back on toplc, the reason I say it is up to us as individuals is I believe government will do nothing, they've gotten it down to a science then elevated it to an artform!    If anything they will do less as our deficits climb.

If a miracle occured and they actually did something he's what a fiscal conservative would like to see.

• Drop the 30% incentive and fund zero interest solar conversion loans instead, patterned on one's average utility bill.  Solar is now competitive without incentives, and volume will only move prices further downward.
  
• Announce a 100 million solar rooftop initiative.
  
• Drop the China tariff, (suppliers are already circumventing it anyway).
  
• Do a massive DIY initiative, patterned on Habitat for humanity, thus cutting the cost of solar in half.

Note, since this wouldn't cost the government a dime over what they are spending now, conservatives would love it!

So what would everyone else like government to do?  Shortpoet?

[Shortpoet-GTD]

Phil, on 14 June 2012 - 08:51 AM, said:

So what would everyone else like government to do?  Shortpoet?

Pass bills that help people and the planet. Simple really.